CHECKMATE! How Russian Economy Is Prospering Despite US Sanctions?

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According to data compiled by Anadolu Agency from real-time energy cargo tracker Vortexa, Russia's crude oil exports to India have increased 14-fold and doubled to China since the start of the Ukraine conflict, with Russia finding new buyers to compensate for the void left by European buyers.

Because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began on February 24, the United States and the United Kingdom agreed to suspend Russian crude imports.

The European Union (EU) agreed to impose an embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil beginning December 5, the same day the EU and G7 agreed to a $60 per barrel Russian crude price cap.

The ban on petroleum products will go into effect on February 5 of next year, covering 90% of Russia's current oil imports.

Bulgaria, on the other hand, was exempt from the sanctions until the end of 2024.

As a result of the EU's decision to reduce Russian oil exports, Russia has sought customers elsewhere, offering lower prices in an effort to sell its crude.

India has emerged as a beneficiary of the Kremlin's low-cost crude.

In 2021, India's crude imports from Russia peaked at 35,000 barrels per day on average.

Despite almost zero Russian imports in January and February 2022, India's Russian crude imports averaged 68,000 barrels per day in March 2022.

Throughout the war, India's seaborne crude exports from Russia steadily increased, reaching 959,000 barrels per day by November 2022, a 14-fold increase.

"Even if India does not join the G7 price cap, the heavily discounted Russian Urals crude oil benefits India's refining sector greatly as there are now fewer buyers left," TankerTrackers.com said in a Twitter post.

After the price cap, the price of Urals was nearly one-third that of the Brent benchmark.

China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Cuba are increasing their Russian crude imports.

The importance of seaborne crude trade in the Kremlin-Beijing energy relationship has grown.

China's seaborne crude oil imports from Russia increased from 670,000 barrels per day in February to nearly 1.1 million barrels per day in November.

During the same time period, Turkey's crude imports from Russia nearly tripled, from 110,000 barrels per day to 327,000 barrels per day on average.

Cuba, which had very few crude imports from Russia prior to the war, imported 48,000 and 23,000 barrels per day in October and November, respectively.

After nearly two years without any Russian crude imports, the United Arab Emirates joined the discounted Russian crude buyers club in May 2022, importing approximately 35,000 barrels per day.


In November, the country's seaborne crude imports from Russia totaled approximately 28,000 barrels per day.

Italy doubles its Russian crude imports as the Netherlands shows a decline

Even before the EU's sanctions package went into effect last week, a number of European countries had almost completely eliminated their Russian crude imports.

Italy was an exception, increasing its Russian crude oil imports from 163,000 barrels per day in February 2022 to 322,000 barrels per day in November 2022.

In June 2022, the highest level was 443,000 barrels per day.

The Russian company Lukoil's ISAB refinery in Syracuse, Italy, prompted the increase in imports.

The Netherlands, which was one of the EU's largest buyers of Russian crude before the war, deviated from its European neighbours by continuing to trade, albeit in smaller volumes.

Russian crude exports to the Netherlands fell from 595,000 barrels per day in February 2022 to 152,000 barrels per day in November 2022.

Vortexa's chief economist, David Wech, told Anadolu Agency that "Approximately 500,000 barrels of Russian oil are currently exported to Germany and Poland via the northern leg of the Druzhba pipeline.

Both countries initially committed to halting these imports alongside seaborne imports, though Poland has recently cast doubt on this."

"If these pipeline exports are truly halted, Russia will have to export that crude via seaports, increasing their need to find new buyers," he explained.


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